21 February 2008

on 21 February 2008 at 18:07

Scientists, journalists and sheep research

The climate change bandwagon depends for its progress on an engine powered by journalists and scientists. Unfortunately, both professions have taken a bit of a knock recently.

Under the headline "The myth of the noble scientist", an article by Terence Kealey, vice-chancellor of the University of Buckingham, suggests that peer review in key journals  can easily become a closed shop. "If a well-known scientist submits a paper, it will probably be accepted; if an unknown submits one, it will probably be rejected."

He cites the case of Barbara McCliintock, winner of the Nobel Prize in 1983, who could not get her original research on gene jumping published in prestige journals because she could not get peer reviewers to accept it.

Establishment science tends to be conservative: once a theory is accepted, it is stuck to like glue - hence the difficulty in getting radical ideas about the climate in print. "Peer review was always an illusion," says Mr Kealey.

Philosophically, this is probably because scientists, like the rest of us, behave rather like sheep. An experiment carried out by researchers at Leeds University found that people will blindly follow "one or two individuals who seem to know where they are going".

Even if they don't.

Journalists are like that too - perhaps even more than most people, and much more now than used to be the case.

Young people want to become journalists because they like the idea of investigating to find out the truth. But of course it's not like that. As Sam Leith reminds us in a review of Flat Earth News, by Nick Davies, "Untruths pass into common currency not because journalists are liars, but because they simply do not know whether what they are writing is true and do not have time to find out."

The quote is from Mr Davies, who says that journalism has become "churnalism". As such it is "exceptionally vulnerable to manipulation". This, of course, suits the green machine down to the ground, because it knows how to make something sound right, and how to paint opponents as demons.

As so often, the wise cannot get their wisdom across, and would-be dictators get a ready audience.

Cold enough to stop a bus

The EDP's environment correspondent, never one to avoid a cliche, tells us that four "intrepid travellers" are visiting six countries on the "trip of a lifetime" with "one topic on their minds - climate change".

Bravely emitting carbon as they go, they will take in America, Brazil, Mexico, Bhutan, China and Japan. I hope they notice that China is in the grip of its worst winter for 100 years, and parts of America have just had 70 inches of snow.

Maybe they could take a couple of detours and register that sea ice between Canada and Greenland is the most voluminous it has been in the last 15 years, Iran has had its  worst snowfall in living memory, and Greece and Turkey are under several feet of snow.

It's been a bit chilly here in England, too. Not really, really cold, but cold enough to stop a bus. If the bus is running on biodiesel, that is.

Eleven Norwich buses were put out of action when the temperature crept below freezing, which doesn't bode well if the global warming enthusiasts are wrong and the chilling stars scientists are right.

But reassurance is at hand. A spokesman for the producers of the biodiesel said it was OK - they knew that cold "does have a specific effect". I wonder if they told the bus company what the specific effect was.

Anyway, not to worry.  "People certainly shouldn't be put off using biofuels. They have a number of very good properties." Bit vague, isn't he? I wonder if the good properties outweigh the fact that the buses won't actually start when it gets chilly. We might try doing surveys at a few bus stops. The promised compensation should do it. Coupled with the increased fares to pay for it.

I made that last bit up. I'm sure the bus company won't be increasing fares.

12 February 2008

on 12 February 2008 at 18:04

Laga law comments welcomed in North Norfolk

The Archbishop of Canterbury, the Prime Minister, the Queen, the Chief Rabbi, the Pope and some druids have suggested that laga law will soon have to be accepted in this country.

Their comments have been welcomed by the Rev Nick Reppscumbastwick, a radical North Norfolk cleric to whom as many as a couple of dozen activists are sometimes loyal.

He said: "We are not in the business of throwing up barriers. In fact laga law, which is followed religiously by many of our young people, specifically states that barriers must be torn down - and thrown into either hedgerows, shop windows or the nearest river.

"Some of us may be disturbed by the frequent and very loud calls to prayer involved in laga law, particularly after the nightclubs close, but I think this should remind of us of our need to call out to God."

He added that although some people found the mutilations prescribed for certain offences a little radical - such as glassing someone who looked at a woman in the wrong way - they were easy to understand, and the lesson was quickly assimilated if the victim survived.

He personally found the sport-centred ceremonies extremely moving in an almost spiritual way, and thought the Church of England could learn from them. "If only Anglicans could attract crowds like that," he said.

He expected laga law to be assimilated into English common law very soon. "It will hardly affect our way of life at all," he promised.

Lies, damn lies, tits and statistics

The annual survey to discover how many birds visit our gardens may not be all that accurate, in view of the spotting ability of those who fill them in.

My five-year-old grandson's version is likely to be more accurate than most, because he was closely supervised. On the other hand, do I really know the difference between a hedge sparrow, a dunnock and a female chaffinch - and if so, why?

A few days after we had dutifully filled in the form, our garden was invaded by half a dozen long-tailed tits, which had not dropped by at all during the form-filling,  perhaps because they knew it was happening. So much for statistics.

Speaking of tits - sorry, I mean statistics - one reader of the Eastern Daily Press is on constant standby with an armful of them to attack anyone who suggests that road humps may not be a good thing, or that speeding is not the cause of every evil on earth.

But even if you accept that government statistics are accurate and in no way reflect the Government's prejudices and policies, he has tripped himself up. Replying to Malcolm Heymer's observation that "in the sorts of roads that humps are installed accidents are rare", he trots out statistics on the number of accidents in built-up areas.

Of course "the sorts of roads that humps are installed in" is in no way synonymous with "built-up areas". Is he bluffing, or does he really not know this? And does the EDP not know this?

It's all right, they're only motorists

We are all too familiar with council chiefs apologising for snarling up traffic. The most graphic example occurred when the Elveden traffic lights were installed on the A11 and someone set them to give priority to the minor road crossing it.

This caused such a huge snarl-up that you would expect someone to lose his job over it, but so little are the needs of motorists regarded that I suspect it was seen as a bit of a joke.

This week some work had to be done on the traffic lights at the junction of the Trowse bypass and the ring road in Norwich - one of the busiest entry points to the city.

I say "had to be done", but according to the EDP, it was to reset the lights to give pedestrians more time to cross. I use this road regularly, and I have never seen a pedestrian attempting to cross there. But of course it could happen, so let's hold everyone up in case it does.

Anyway, the first step was to cone off a lane unnecessarily. I suspect this happens because the councils in Norfolk have overstocked with cones and have to get them out now and again. Have you noticed how quickly lanes are closed on dual carriageways? If we can fix things that go wrong on a single carriageway without closing it, why do we automatically start closing lanes on a dual carriageway?

The other amusing thing about this incident (if you weren't caught up in the mess) was that council chiefs seem to think that there is less traffic in school holidays. There may be less in the rush hour, when council chiefs are on the road, but there is much more during the day, as carloads of families pile into the city in a vain attempt to find something to do to fill the time.

But of course the key to it all is that councils don't care about drivers. All their strategies and plans start by making life easier for pedestrians, cyclists and public transport. Cars are just in the way and can be inconvenienced in whatever way they like. One day someone will spot that most voters are motorists  and devise a policy that includes them. As a pedestrian, cyclist and bus and train user, I'd vote for whoever that was. Wouldn't you?

 

7 February 2008

on 7 February 2008 at 18:03

EDP announcement

Thanks to deputy editor Peter Waters, my EDP farewell page has now been put on the EDP website at http://new.edp24.co.uk/content/commentary/TimLenton.aspx

A brief announcement that the page would no longer be appearing in the paper was made in the Eastern Daily Press this morning.

6 February 2008

on 6 February 2008 at 18:01

Speed humps letter – unexpurgated version

Letters to the editor of the Eastern Daily Press are frequently cut, ostensibly to get more of them in. But this policy can easily prevent a writer from getting the full force of an argument across. It is especially annoying when a reader writes a full response to someone else’s argument, and only part of it is used.

Malcolm Heymer, of Dereham, recently suffered this fate in an exchange about speed humps. He has given me permission to publish the full version here:

""In response to D Denham’s letter in favour of speed humps (Jan 31), it is certainly true that they reduce speeds. Whether they produce an overall benefit to road safety is another matter altogether.

""In the sorts of roads where humps are installed, road accidents are rare and subject to random variations from year to year. Humps are often installed after an upward blip in accidents, which would have fallen again anyway, with or without the humps. In addition, drivers try to avoid roads with humps when they can, so traffic often diverts to other routes. Claims about the safety benefits of road humps do not take account of these factors, which is why the claimed accident reductions are not reflected in county-wide or national casualty figures.

""Speed humps do not just slow emergency vehicles, but can also cause accidents. In a recent case in Bolton, a police van took off after hitting a hump, hit an oncoming car and crashed into a garden, injuring six people who were standing in the garden, including an eight-year-old boy. Miraculously no-one was killed, but it could have been a disaster.

""I am aware of the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) report claiming that speed humps do not damage vehicles. What must be realised is that TRL conducted its research on road humps constructed with great care to comply with the required dimensions. This does not happen in the real world, where humps that are supposed to be identical can differ in height and shape of the approach ramps. Humps do not just damage vehicles but also people, especially those with back problems or with suspected spinal injuries being carried in ambulances.

""There are alternatives to humps where speeds are too high. These include types of “psychological” traffic calming and the shared-space idea, where the segregation of vehicles and other road users is deliberately blurred to make everyone take more care.

""It is possible to reduce traffic speeds in residential areas without punishing the majority of responsible drivers for the actions of a minority.""

Bishops jump on to carbon bandwagon

Watching the Church of England jump on to a bandwagon where angels fear to tread is nothing new. This year it’s climate change, of course.

It’s Lent – time to fast - and the Bishops of London and Liverpool have come up with a splendid green idea: why not give up carbon for Lent? Of course if we did that we’d all die immediately, since we are carbon-based life forms, but never mind, we can give up some of it.

The EDP, of course, reports this enthusiastically and comes up with a few tips, many of which make sense and some of which are really trivial and  silly. For instance, “when you do drive, drive skilfully” – as opposed to the rest of the year, when we can drive like idiots, I suppose. Driving skilfully apparently involves “minimising the amount of breaking (sic) and accelerating”: not sure about the accelerating, which is often a useful safety feature, but I certainly try to avoid breaking things when I drive.

We are also advised, of course, to “keep speeds down”, which means that Norfolk roads will be full of crawling fellow-Anglicans for 40 days. This could be good for developing spiritual control, so I probably shouldn’t grumble.

But why the Church has to get involved in all this, I don’t know. Energy-saving and avoidance of waste are praiseworthy, but those of us who do our best in these areas do not take kindly to being treated like primary school children, and those who couldn’t care less are even further alienated.

Christianity is about transformation on a spiritual level. This must  translate to lifestyle alterations, but by starting with the effects and omitting the causes, the Church has once again presented itself as paddling in the shallows instead of plunging into the deep. As for walking on water, forget it.

Maybe it's not surprising that where baptism is concerned, Anglicans go for sprinkling instead of total immersion.

5 February 2008

on 5 February 2008 at 17:58

Human-induced accuracy is biggest problem for the Press

More than 70 per cent of the complaints made to the Press Complaints Commission concern a lack of accuracy. That is according to the most recent figures. There are no figures for lack of balance, or failure to give both sides of an issue. Maybe we don’t expect it. Certainly we don’t expect it when it comes to climate change issues. Most national and many regional papers, including the Eastern Daily Press, have environmental correspondents, and most of them do not seem to think it important to give both sides of a story. Indeed, some of them might be described as propagandists rather than journalists. It is becoming increasingly evident to those who research such issues elsewhere that more and more scientists are dubious about the sweeping politicised pronouncements coming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those who have discovered the methods employed by the IPCC in producing its summaries will not be reassured. My namesake at the University of East Anglia has just published new researched about “tipping points” – critical thresholds of changes in human activity that “can have long-term consequences for the planet”. The EDP reports this at some length without giving any indication as to how many scientists support or oppose it. Of course the paper does not have enough reporters to research stuff like this in detail, but why not report opposing political views, like the “chilling stars” theory of imminent cooling, and the rarely mentioned fact that any CO2-induced warming is logarithmic and not linear? I have written now and again about these things – without anything I have written being refuted - and I do not propose to go over the same old ground. Thanks to the Internet, there are many websites that do give the information not supplied by newspapers. One that has recently been recommended to me, and seems quite thorough as well as easy to understand, concerns the accuracy of the press on this issue and can be found at http://www.aim.org/special-report/will-media-expose-global-warming-con-job/ Worth a look, surely?

Hang on a minute, let's not be too hasty

The Roman town at Caistor, south-east of Norwich, has been buried since archaeologists decided that exposing it to the elements would risk swift deterioration. Arguing against total excavation, an EDP reader from Nottingham (clearly circulation is improving) who happens to be a lecturer in Roman Archaeology explained: “Archaeologists are getting better, so sites are better left untouched for future generations.” This is an interesting viewpoint, rather out of kilter with the politically correct mantra for all occasions: “The status quo is not an option.” Clearly for Roman towns it is an option, and I wonder where else it is being secretly applied. It might explain, for instance, why the road system in Norfolk is so poor: road-builders might improve, so the present system is better left untouched. In fact this is a really good argument for not doing anything that we might get better at. Norwich City should not try to score, because they might get better at it in future. We should not operate on seriously ill patients, because a better operation might come along – maybe two or three. I should not be writing this, because my writing might improve soon. That would put me out of work – and I would be joined by quite a few other people, archaeologists among them. But being out of work might improve soon, so perhaps we had better not act hastily.

The first shall be last, possibly

I was glad to see that the EDP has been promoting the exciting food available in one of my favourite spots, the Autonomous Republic of Hingham. I should add that the town has very good public conveniences, and if my old friend Professor V A R Scheinlich is to be believed, the best wormholes in the United Kingdom. Prof Scheinlich’s groundbreaking work on time-space distortions in the Hingham area is well known, and many American tourists seeking their ancestors go to him first. Or last, depending on time-space distortions.

1 February 2008

on 1 February 2008 at 14:11

Last chance to party with life as we know it

A farewell party was held last night to mark two things: the withdrawal of financial support for UK ground–based facilities for solar–terrestrial physics – the area of astronomy concerned with our planet's connection to the sun – and the final appearance of this page in the EDP after more than 11 years.

The party was held at the School of Penguins, Chess and Road Surfacing at the University of East Anglia. Professor Ian “Sam” Aufmerksam said it was sad to see the end of something so important and critical to the future of the country, but his research indicated that he could probably get another job somewhere.

Prof Aufmerksam is known for explaining why there is so much slow–moving traffic on the A146, though no–one can remember the reason.

His colleague Professor V A R Scheinlich, usually based in the Autonomous Republic of Hingham, was concerned that his ground–breaking work on wormholes and time–space distortion would be hit, though he was not sure when or where.

He was glad the Hingham tradition of neo–democracy was being continued by Norwich City Council, whose public consultation on varying permit parking charges for cars of different lengths (52 per cent against, 35 per cent in favour) showed that “most people weren’t actually bothered” and the scheme would go ahead. He felt this kind of democracy was set for a long run, and Hingham would always be remembered, possibly in the future.

Guest of honour was Norfolk legend Henry (Fred) “Shrimp” Houseago, 108, who has led a lengthy and surprisingly ineffective campaign against the expansion plans of great crested newts, who have successfully infiltrated many government departments, local councils and non–governmental organisations, leading to vast increases in paperwork and dehumanising processes, as well as targets.

He was accompanied surprisingly by his former fiancée Dorothea Goodchild, who had been believed dead for some years. She said she felt “reinvigorated”, although this was denied by wholefood chef and comet–chaser Len “Kissme” Hardy of Hindolveston, who said he had been “barged into” by the Rev Nicholas Reppscumbastwick, a radical cleric and protest organiser.

Mrs Hicks, Erpingham–based mayor of Little London, near Corpusty, said she was delighted to have been invited, though she was not entirely clear what was going on. She suspected that the withdrawal of funding was a device to prevent connections between the sun and the earth’s climate being established, but could see no link with 11 years of “meandering trivialities and bizarre opinions which were of no interest to her electorate”. However, the wine was good.

“Harmless” Nelson, of the Empty Quarter, agreed, but could not remember why he was there, or indeed anywhere.

A representative of La Fédération Poohstix d’Europe said it was the end of an era, and it would be a long time before the Olympic sport of throwing pieces of wood off bridges attracted such publicity again. He was pessimistic about its inclusion in the London Games, though many excellent bridges were in the immediate vicinity. He added that he had seen a coypu in the Lower Common Room, although it might have been an Austrian cave salamander.

After a superb speech by Richard “Volcano” Meek, the well–known local explorer, most people moved on to an after–party event held at Whynge, a new town which emerged a few years ago from the North Sea and is now sometimes on the coast. A few stragglers, including the Wymondham duck, took a wrong turning and ended up at nearby Pondhenge, where they drowned their sorrows.

A newspaper columnist, who said he was hoping to retain his position as president of the West Norfolk Mountain Rescue Team, added that he had enjoyed writing the page and thanked almost everyone who had responded to what he had written over the years. The page had appeared in the first tabloid edition of the EDP and had survived “an unexpectedly long time”.

Masochists would still be able to find it archived on www.back2sq1.co.uk, where future commentary articles might also be posted, if he could be bothered.

Robins see off coaches

My Cardwatch correspondent, who has recently relocated to Sheringham, informs me that he failed to track down a single “coach and horses in snow” on last year’s Christmas cards.

It is sad to record the apparent demise of a species like this. Concerned readers may or may not be relieved to hear that the coach and horses appears to have been replaced by a ubiquitous robin.

I suspect that the lack of coaches may have something to do with carbon footprints, first left by “Good” King Wenceslas in the deep and allegedly even snow of the Little Ice Age.

Pig of a year

Last year was a bad one for teddy bears. To protect pigs from a similar fate, I suggest that any teacher aiming to ply his or her primary trade in Europe should be made aware that in France it is illegal to name a pig Napoleon.