28 January 2002

on 28 January 2002 at 08:00

Statistics in chaos lead to belief crisis

The climate is changing. No argument about that: it always has changed, and it probably always will.

But so is the climate of opinion. Until recently, there was a blind acceptance that the planet was warming up, it was our fault, and it was a bad thing. Now all that is being challenged: even some journalists, into whose laps global warming stories fall like manna from heaven, are questioning whether all is as it seems.

Do all scientists say the same things, and are the data and computer models compatible? Is chaos predictable at all?

Or do we give too much respect to what seems to be authority in this and other areas? As Albert Einstein, quite a well-known scientist, said, “unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth”.

This is clearly the case in another chaotic system – road traffic – where those in authority routinely mislead about the number of accidents caused by speed, and many people simply accept it as fact. But even here, the climate is changing as the public starts to challenge false figures and ask when the real cause of accidents is going to be tackled.

But we still get dollops of bizarre statistics thrown at us under such misleading headings as “Drivers in Favour of Speed Cameras”.

Are they? According to this widely circulated report of an RAC survey, 78 per cent of drivers consider speed cameras a good way of deterring speeding. But it emerges later that 60 per cent agree that speed cameras cause people to slow down dangerously quickly, and 48 per cent think they’re just a way of raising revenue.

So at least 38 per cent must think that cameras are a good way of deterring speeding and that they cause people to slow down dangerously quickly. And 26 per cent must think that they are a good way of deterring speeding and that they are just a way of raising revenue.

These beliefs are clearly mutually exclusive, but never mind. It’s a survey of 1800 people; so it must be right.

Meanwhile we have to endure the latest pathetic TV attempt to persuade us that a car is lethal at 35mph and harmless at 30mph, when a little thought reveals that it can kill at any speed if the driver is not paying attention.

To ensure that you are travelling at 30mph and not 35mph you would have to keep looking at the speedometer, which means that on each occasion you did it (at a second a time) your eyes would be off the road for a potentially lethal 44ft.

Extra braking distance at 35mph? Less than half that, at 21ft. Elementary, my dear Einstein.

Republic adrift again after grass-roots voting

The Hingham Autonomous Republic, which was missing for some time following road works, has been found in Turmoil again.

“We find that Hingham often drifts in this direction, partly because of the well-known time distortions and wormholes,” said local expert Professor V A R Scheinlich.

Turmoil is situated just outside space and time, near Watton.

The spark for the space-shift has been revealed once more to be the old Hingham bête noir of democracy. Some historians credit the republic with inventing the form of democracy later adopted by New Labour. Others attribute it to Attila the Hun.

This time republic voting centred on the Fairlands, an area of grassland that the parish has decided to redesign at a cost of £80,000.

Unfortunately the redesign involves removing grassland from the conservation area and introducing chevron marking and a one-way scheme. People living in the immediate area are not keen on this.

Hingham Town Council, which runs the republic, faces opposition from the Hingham Society, which doesn’t – but which thinks £20,000 worth of kerbing will solve the problem. It all sounds dreadfully familiar, and further consultations are taking place.

As an outsider, I have to say that the solution is obvious: stop voting, buy a Scout Hut and install it on the grass.

Questions to be asked of new intelligent crossing

Work is in progress, I understand, on an “intelligent pedestrian crossing” for Castle Meadow in Norwich.

When I heard about it, I felt it must be a bit of a breakthrough – the first intelligent thing to be installed on the streets of the city in living memory. Citizens have become so used to stupid speed humps, idiotic road closures, inane one-way systems and empty-headed cycle paths that they had long ceased to look for anything that made sense

But after a few minutes’ thought I became suspicious. Perhaps we should wait and see exactly how intelligent this crossing is. Set it a few tricky questions – try and trip it up.

What does “intelligent” mean in this context? Can it see through the unthinking dogma spewed out by our self-satisfied highways authorities, who can reject a congestion-reducing northern relief road on the spurious grounds that “people don’t want another road”? Or will it simply lie down and allow itself to be rolled over, like most voters?

Will this allegedly intelligent crossing simplify things and make life easier, or will it create difficulties by trying to be far too clever?

Will it think the answer to pollution and congestion is to put obstacles in people’s way? Will it understand how different individuals are, or will it see things in black and white?

Perhaps we could get it to develop an integrated transport policy. It can hardly do worse than the politicians. Terror elf to stalk lanes

The mystery of the filled-in drainage ditches in South Norfolk deepens, as does the flood water afflicting an ever-widening and soggier area. Parish councils have been asked to identify the shadowy landowners who are filling in the ditches and causing the trouble, but this could prove difficult, because parish councillors of course know nothing about land-owning.

Meanwhile a network of volunteer emergency planning co-ordinators is collecting data. This is not a serious problem, as people can drive round them.

Now, in response to pleas for something realistic and meaningful to be done, South Norfolk Council has secretly appointed an Environmental Elf, whose job it will be to track down and destroy anyone found to be contributing to the flooding problem.

Terror will shortly be stalking the lanes, I am glad to say. It is no use asking the council about this. They will deny it.

20 January 2002

on 20 January 2002 at 08:00

Well, it’s good news for the consultants

First the good news: government ministers have realised that the main reason teachers are leaving the profession in droves is the appalling behaviour of a sizeable minority of pupils. Now the bad news: they are bringing in consultants to sort it out.

“An army of behaviour consultants”, no less, is going to be employed by local authorities to help schools tackle unruly children as part of a Government campaign to get to grips with secondary education.

In my experience, consultants in general do only one thing well: make money for themselves. I hope this is a different breed of consultant, but somehow I doubt it. I also doubt whether it will be one of the items listed by the county council when they ask us what we’d like to axe to keep our council tax down.

Perhaps even more annoying – the whole bad-behaviour problem has been created by successive governments. Over the past couple of decades teachers have been deprived of almost every method of imposing discipline.

They are not allowed to touch children for fear of being charged with assault, and now it seems they cannot put pupils in detention without some silly girl claiming she’s being victimised, and being given time on national television to explain that she “only broke school rules”, as if that didn’t matter.

Children can only learn if they can pay attention to what they’re being taught without the class being disrupted. Most children very much want to do this, and welcome quite strict rules that safeguard a learning environment.

But there will always be some – usually abetted by irresponsible parents – who feel that they have to be the centre of attention and can do what they like, shouting “You can’t touch me!” at any adult who tries to stop them.

The Government can tackle this quite easily by ditching the consultants and giving back to teachers the power to punish pupils – and with it the respect and discipline that are essential for both teaching and learning.

But like most organisations in a society that majors on abdication of responsibility, it will not take the simple step. It would rather spend money on clouding the issue.

The climate goes on changing

Few can doubt that if the disastrous 1953 floods had happened any time in the last five years, they would have been blamed on global warming.

Indeed, we are being warned – apparently with tongues firmly removed from cheeks – that if they do happen again, that will be the reason.

Why on earth should we believe this? It is quite clear that severe weather is random. This month, unexpected parts of Europe have experienced extremely cold conditions, as Norfolk did in 1963 – a winter I remember vividly, as I had to climb into the loft to break the ice on the water tank every day on my return from school.

I don’t quite remember the frigid winter of 1947, or the extensive Fen floods that followed. But they certainly happened, as did the massive Norwich flooding of 1912, and indeed 1878.

The sea had also broken through before, of course: at Horsey and elsewhere in February, 1938, and in 1805 and 1897.

Before this, records are less accessible and often non-existent. But the great British storm of November 1703, which carried with it “truly Biblical scenes of destruction”, killing 123 people on land and 8000 sailors, as well as destroying more than 400 windmills, is well documented.

Much more recently, there was the devastating non-hurricane of 1987.

What about rising sea levels? We all know that in Roman times, much more of Norfolk was under water than is the case now.

Sea levels do rise and fall, and we can’t do much about it. In the Middle Ages, it was generally reckoned to be warmer than it is now. The only predictable thing about weather is that we can’t predict it. The only safe thing you can say about climate change is that it does.

Now let this be a lesson to you ...

Mrs Hicks, the Mayor of Little London, near Corpusty, has announced new bylaws which she says will bring the parish in line with national trends.

In future, anyone carrying out a burglary in the area will receive a grant of up to £500 according to need. Muggers will get a severe talking to, and murderers will be put on probation. Arsonists will get a cooling-off period.

The penalty for speeding is meanwhile being raised to a minimum of a £5000 fine, with confiscation of the vehicle.

Where there is evidence that the driver is an expert, the offender can expect at least five years’ in jail. Mrs Hicks said critics of these moves were misinformed. She was merely changing the emphasis.

Activists infiltrate space-time

The Autonomous Republic of Hingham, near Norfolk, was on full alert last night after members of Greenpeace broke in and occupied a building formerly known as the Scout Hut.

Members of the attacking group painted the word DANGER on the roof of the building, which was believed to contain devices capable of distorting time and space.

Asked whether security should be tightened up, Professor V A R Scheinlich, the Hingham authority, said: “We were going to shoot them, but we had a vote, and 400 people were against it. We were still going to shoot them, but we decided they looked pretty silly on the roof, so we decided to leave them there.”

He said there was never any danger to the public – or at least, no more than usual.

If the brick fits, wear it

A man was taken to hospital in California last month after his head was split open by a brick.

Witnesses said foul play was not involved: the man was merely trying to see how high he could throw a brick, and since it was dark, he lost track of its flight and could not get out of the way when it came down on his head.

Please don’t be cynical. This actually happened. Police said alcohol appeared to be involved, but sources close to the incident reveal that it was research being carried out by a certain anti-motoring organisation.

Happily I can also publish the results of this research – the accident was caused by speed.

If the brick had been falling more slowly, there would have been no problem.

14 January 2002

on 14 January 2002 at 08:00

Hospital failing, Ofsic reports

A shock report leaked by government inspectors Ofsic reveals that the new Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital is falling short of acceptable standards. It is being put on special measures from today.

Inspectors from the Office for Standards in Care who visited the hospital found that most sessions conducted by nurses or doctors were satisfactory or better, though morale was not the best. But resources were unsatisfactory, and staff tended to fall ill too easily – a phenomenon that was put down to sick building syndrome.

Discipline among patients was described as mainly reasonable, but the inspectors felt that too many were being expelled for no good reason. They were failing to reach targets and their performance in examinations was very low-key. “During some operations they seemed to be practically unconscious,” says the report.

Management and procedures were described as “sadly lacking”, with the Ofsic inspectors particularly critical of the cash-centred culture. “It is being run like a business and not as a caring and healing establishment,” they say. “It is rigid and not user-friendly.”

The inspectors suggest that the hospital was opened at the wrong time, purely as a cash-saving measure. They also have doubts about the parking provisions and access to the hospital. “We feel that access has been made difficult to prevent people getting there and overloading the facilities,” says the report.

Ofsic suggests that some small rural hospitals in the county could provide valuable support and should be reopened. The standard of care provided at them “more than compensates for the lack of hi-tech equipment”, says Ofsic.

A Standards in Care (Sic) action team will take over the running of the new hospital until its performance improves. A hospital spokesman commented: “This is very disappointing. I said we shouldn’t have sent them a map.”

Reservoir ducks in shooting threat

Plans to introduce duck-shooting at Pondhenge, the historically significant secret site in North Norfolk, have been attacked by local residents.

“This has been a quiet spot for centuries,” said spokesman Bill Cannis. “Obviously we have been worried about the resident goose, but it has never been violent. Now innocent Pondhengers, who love nothing better than the traditional Norfolk practice of sitting and gazing into the distance, are at risk.

“It won’t be just local ducks. It will be those reservoir ducks from down the road. I’ve seen the website.”

A council spokesman said he felt the residents had not been fully informed about the proposals. But they were evacuating the goose to avoid unpleasant incidents. Hot tips for the coming year

In all the rush and illness of the Christmas season, I neglected to give you my detailed predictions for 2002 or beyond.

It is clearly too late to remedy this in any organised way, but to allay any disappointment, here are some odd forecasts that I managed to extricate from the furnace. Unfortunately the precise dates could not be retrieved. Readers may like to amuse themselves by putting them in order and then checking them off as they happen. Or vice versa.

After a particularly cold eight weeks, scientists tell us that the freak weather is caused by global warming. A country is discovered that has not been visited by Tony Blair in the past six months. Blair visits it. Scientists blame global warming. After a two-week drought and slight heatwave in Hindolveston, scientists blame global warming. Something extremely dangerous is found in Australia. It is Bill Bryson. Scientists blame global warming. An asteroid strikes Wales, and Tony Blair immediately holds a referendum on joining the euro. Scientists blame global warming. After heavy rainfall and high winds one Thursday in Costessey, scientists blame global warming. Thirty-seven trains run on time. Scientists blame global warming. After an extremely high tide at Hemsby, scientists blame global warming. An access road is built joining the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital to the A47, but the sun explodes. Scientists blame motorists. Dualling of the A11 is completed. Aliens from Andromeda form a government. Scientists blame great crested newts.

Another unfair dig at cyclists

A Norwich cyclist has hit out at fellow-pedallers who travel on the pavement instead of on the road.

“Women and children normally cycle correctly on the road,” she said. “It’s usually men in their thirties or forties who ride on the pavement – and they have all the protective gear, too.

“I often see them crossing the road with pedestrians at designated areas. They have this little game where they mustn’t put their foot down.”

Cycling on pavements is not only illegal but dangerous; one cyclist who knocked down and seriously injured a young boy protested: “I couldn’t help it. I didn’t know he was going to come running out of school.”

This is an interesting defence, expected to be adopted by many motorists soon. If so, it will be widely condemned, though it can be argued that children are quite entitled to come running on to the pavement, whereas there is little excuse for running into the road.

I would like to suggest controversially that the roads and pavements would be safer if we were all more careful and considerate, but while I’m unfairly having a go at cyclists and trying to drum up some readers’ letters, let me point out the following statistics.

Cyclists will tell you they are much safer than cars, but that is an illusion, because they are much fewer, and don’t travel nearly as far. If we assume that the average car holds 1.6 people, and the average cycle one person, cycles will seriously injure 1.8 pedestrians per 100 million passenger kilometres, whereas cars will seriously injure 1.3.

Or to put it another way, in 1998 (the latest available figures) cyclists killed two pedestrians, seriously injured 78 and slightly injured 187 while doing the same number of passenger miles as cars do in fewer than three days.